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SLO Housing is Nation's Most Vulnerable

Thursday, December 16, 2004

According to a report from information provider Standard & Poor's, San Luis Obispo is the most volatile housing market in the nation and the most likely to pop - ranking highest in a housing volatility index (HVI) that attempts to identify which of the 331 U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) are most vulnerable to housing price losses during an economic downturn.

The HVI examines historical records of housing prices, as reported by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, and focuses on the variabilty of those prices over the years.

One of the developers of the index, Francis Parisi, says that it reflects not just how much homes in those markets have gone up in price during the good years, but how much they have gone down during the bad. The steeper the price rises and price descents, the more vulnerable.

The index ignores other economic factors, such as consumer debt or mortgage rates.

S&P went as far back as the 1970s to examine the data for each market, according to Parisi. He stresses that S&P is not predicting a bubble burst nor is it saying that there will be an economic decline.

Read more in today's CNN/Money article:
If the bubble bursts... - Les Christie, CNN/Money

The Tribune carried news about this article the following day:
Are we in a housing bubble? - Leslie E. Stevens, The Tribune
Some real estate agents unfazed by S&P report - Nick Wilson and Nathan Welton, The Tribune

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